Hunt 365 October 2019-When Will the Rut Start?
For a long time now, science has debunked pretty much every attempt by hunters, outdoor writers, and TV personalities who have claimed to have an angle on predicting the whitetail rut. Well, keep reading because this hunter (that would be me) has a new take on predicting a whitetail buck’s rut, that science actually backs up. It’s not that the science around the rut has been wrong all these years; on the contrary! But what science does get wrong for hunters is their sampling rate. Let me explain. But first…
A Background for Discussions Sake
When I was a kid, just starting to hunt, camp was filled with stories of the hunt. And the stories always came with tactics and predictions. Where to sit, why the deer did what they did, why the rut started later this year, or last. The weather was a huge winner in predicting the rut…those cold days in late October, or an early snow in November is what got the does ready to breed. The early snow surely made the bucks go wild with lust for the does that were coming into heat. It had to be something because one year bucks were going nuts in late October, the next year it wasn’t until early November. Some years we didn’t see any rut action until well into November.
Then science started to tell the story. Today, science has perfected the art of telling us when does come into heat. Through extensive studies, DNR agencies and university research groups can tell us precisely when the peak of the rut (or doe breeding) takes place each year. Through sampling of road-killed does in late winter and early spring, agencies can see if they were pregnant. If they were pregnant, they can measure the length of the fetus and estimate the date the doe was bred. The more sampling, the more accurate the prediction. And, when done over several years, the science tells us that weather, moon phase, timing of the moon…has no correlation with the whitetail rut. The median date for the rut stays the same year in, and year out. But, for hunters, this is where the data is actually too good because it skews our real-life experiences in the deer woods.
When the science predicts the rut for us, they are using huge sampling rates. The higher the sampling rates, the more accurate they can determine peak breeding of does for Iowa or the entire Midwest. However, let’s say for example only one doe was found and checked and it was determined that she was bred on October 25th. Could science proclaim the peak of the rut is now the 25th…of course not. How about if two does were found and checked…October 25th and October 27th. Nope, this won’t work. But if thousands of does are found and checked, the data starts to fill in. All the breeding dates are plotted and mapped, and what we would see is a Bell curve of breeding beginning sometime in early October, peaking around November 13th (or so) all across the Midwest, and then tapering off until the very last breeding takes place in January. The vast majority of breeding takes place each and every year between November 10th and 20th; but there is some breeding outside of those dates, again starting in early October and ending in January. Every year the Bell curve repeats itself when sampling thousands of does. For science, this is great! And it shows us that the moon or weather doesn’t change things. But, as hunters, this large sample rate is precisely the problem and why the science doesn’t always fit with our own observations in the field. We are not sampling or observing thousands of does!
The Local Rut
Let me start by saying that the science isn’t wrong. Not at all. It’s just that the science tells us about the broad breeding dates of whitetails across thousands of samples. Median breeding dates across an entire deer herd for an entire state or region, will not change year to year, and don’t change because of things like moon or weather. However, hunters are not hunting entire herds of deer…numbering in the thousands. We are hunting local deer herds and local buck and doe populations. In fact, I would say most hunters are only exposed to a dozen or two adult doe’s home ranges, some far less to be sure. When sampling only 4 or 5 does, can you see where the nice predictable Bell curve might not apply? Imagine 2 of those does coming into heat around October 20th, another November 1st, and the two remaining toward the end of November. What would happen locally if not a single doe comes into heat until well into November? The local deer herd, when these does are coming into heat, will dictate how the rut looks like on each farm or acreage. When the does are coming into heat has a HUGE bearing on how the rut looks like for each hunter and on each farm. Large sampling intended to predict peak breeding of an entire herd does little to explain local rut activity…other than telling us that weather or moon has no impact, and that breading can take place all along that Bell curve. Peak breeding on your hunting grounds over many years will no doubt match up with peak breeding dates established by science (across the Midwest this is roughly Nov. 10th-20th) , but in any given year it can be sooner, or later, or scattered all over the place…and unfortunately there is no way to predict it.
Now, don’t take this as me saying that I don’t plan and think of the rut each year as roughly the same; because I do. Most hunters don’t have unlimited time away from work and family, we have to hedge our bets and do our best to predict when hunting might be its best. This is where we can try to predict that pre-rut build-up might take place that last week of October, or that peak breeding might well be mid-November. But it is important to understand that the scientific Bell curve doesn’t always fit a hunter’s reality.
Hunting the Unpredictable Rut
20 years ago, I had the privilege of hunting a farm of about 440 acres. It was unique in that it was divided by a state highway. Very few deer ventured both sides of the highway, not that it never happened. But it gave me the experience of hunting what seemed like two different local deer herds. Almost without exception, each year the rut would play out differently on each side. One year, the rut would kick into high gear in late October on one side, the other not. The next year it would flip. Some years one side would have a long drawn out rut, then that action would flip. It took me almost a decade to put ideas and my theory to work for me. The theory was this…does coming into heat was the action or event that was triggering the “rut”. That first doe, THAT FIRST DOE, that came into heat is what started the bucks rutting behavior. I’m not talking about some scrapes, or rubs, or even some chasing…but that first doe coming into heat is what got all bucks, even the mature ones, kicked into high gear. It’s what got the mature bucks (the ones I was hunting) into the rut in a way not seen until the point that she came into heat. In practice, that first doe coming into heat is what was triggering the start of the buck’s rut.
Now, years later, I have the benefit of owning two farms separated by over 20 miles. Two entirely different deer herds to be sure…and once again the results are the same. On any given year, the rut starts and peaks at completely different times on either farm. No rhyme, no reason. One farm will light up with buck activity and it might be a week or longer before the other one does. Then, the next year it might flip/flop. It is that first hot doe that is dictating the local buck rutting behavior.
So, with this unpredictable nature of timing the local rut, how then do we put an effective strategy together to hunt the entire season? My answer is this…for planning purposes use the peak breeding dates of mid-November to plan your vacations from work, long weekends, or when you tell your spouse you’ll be in the woods. For me, this means spending as much time in the deer’s woods from about October 25th or so (what I call peak hunting) until well into November.
But never take your eye off what really triggers the rut in your area. And, realizing that the does coming into heat will dictate how the local bucks will act, hunt with this in mind. For example, if it’s mid-October, and you see evidence of that first doe coming into heat, get all over it. If you think you have a giant on a feeding pattern, he won’t be once he smells her. Don’t talk yourself into peak breeding isn’t for another 3 weeks. You see a hot doe; recognize she’ll be in heat for a day or two and hunt your heart out in her home range. If you are hunting a stand that allows you to see vast acreage on an evening hunt and it’s October 21st…you see a doe, a single doe being dogged by several bucks, and they won’t leave her alone…classic hot doe activity. Get all over it. Call in sick to work tomorrow, take another vacation day. Also, recognize that this first doe will likely trigger rutting activity on that farm by all the local bucks. Be prepared for activity to take off on this farm. Don’t talk yourself into waiting for better weather, a cold front, or when you start seeing a shooter during daylight on your cameras. You see a hot doe, presumably an early hot doe…get all over it!
As hunters, we can’t (yet) predict when the first does will come into heat each year on our local hunting grounds. Every fall, I look forward to that first hot doe more (much more) than I look forward to that October cold front we hear about so often. That first hot doe will trigger rutting behavior in the local buck pool like nothing before it this hunting season. Be ready for it, and understand what is making the bucks go nuts on your hunting grounds, or why they aren’t going nuts quite yet. You find or witness that first doe coming into heat, and get all over it, and you may find yourself with a great buck to show for it. That first hot doe dictates greater buck movement than any date on a calendar or any cold front!
